February's core inflation in the U.S. slowed as expected, with price pressures showing signs of easing before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. However, rising oil, gasoline, and fertilizer costs due to ongoing Middle East conflicts are likely to push energy prices higher in the short term, according to Citigroup, whose outlook suggests this upward pressure on inflation will likely be reflected in March data. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at next week’s policy meeting.

Decoding the counterattack strategy.

Faced with massive capital expenditure pressures, Oracle is requiring certain cloud service customers to bear the high cost of expensive AI chips—or directly bring their own chips into Oracle's data centers. This move enables the company to fulfill new orders while avoiding further deterioration of its cash flow. Oracle's stock surged over 10% pre-market, reflecting market reevaluation of its management’s ability to navigate the crisis.

Private credit is caught in a 'double squeeze'! On the funding side, JPMorgan has downgraded collateral valuations for loans tied to software companies, directly reducing the financing available to private credit funds from the bank. On the investor side, major players are facing redemption waves, leading to liquidity crunches—Cliffwater's redemption requests exceed 7%, following large redemptions at Blackstone and Blue Owl.

Huatai Securities believes the window for a structural reversal in the HSTECH index may still be pending. While AI-related expectations have largely been corrected, consumer earnings outlook remains unstable; 'cheap valuation' alone is insufficient to drive sustained market momentum. The period from late March to early April will serve as a critical window for dense validation, during which major tech firms' earnings calls and macroeconomic trends will determine whether a rebound can materialize.

The IEA is pushing for the largest emergency oil reserve release in history. According to The Wall Street Journal, the proposed release could reach 400 million barrels—more than double the 182 million barrels released after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022; Bloomberg reports the figure is between 300 million and 400 million barrels, accounting for 25% to 30% of member countries’ total reserves. Decisions will be made by member nations on Wednesday (March 11), and if no country objects, the plan will automatically take effect.

Citi believes the impact of oil prices on inflation will be minimal for the February CPI data to be released on Wednesday, but will significantly affect March figures. A projected 15% monthly increase in gasoline prices in March is expected to drive a 7% month-over-month rise in the CPI energy component. The lagged effects of airfares and core goods will reflect the second wave of oil-driven inflation in the second quarter. However, due to weakness in the labor market, current market expectations show short-term inflation pressures rising but long-term stability.

Despite disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's crude oil exports have surged rather than declined. According to Kpler data, Iran's average daily crude loading over the past six days reached 2.1 million barrels—exceeding the pre-conflict level of 2 million barrels per day in February. Meanwhile, Gulf neighbors such as Saudi Arabia have been forced to cut supplies, highlighting growing geopolitical divergence. To avoid blockade risks, Iran has restarted operations at the Jask port to explore alternative export routes, though its operational efficiency remains far below that of its main hub, Khark Island. JPMorgan warns that prolonged closure of the strait could significantly disrupt global supply.

Amazon launched its first euro-denominated bond issuance on March 11. The transaction includes seven fixed-rate notes ranging from 2 to 38 years, plus one floating-rate note with a 2-year maturity, totaling eight tranches, with pricing expected today. JPMorgan Chase serves as global coordinator, while Barclays, BofA Securities, and Société Générale act as joint bookrunners. This issuance follows Amazon’s recent $37 billion USD bond offering, bringing the total financing to nearly $50 billion.

On the market front, more stocks declined than advanced. Over 3,200 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets were red, with morning trading volume reaching 1.68 trillion yuan. The half-day trading volume for Shanghai and Shenzhen reached 1.67 trillion yuan, up 70 billion yuan from the previous session. Sector-wise, solar energy, lithium battery concepts surged, while wind power, brain-computer interface, stablecoin, energy storage, and CPO themes remained active. Defense, oil & gas, steel, and rare earth sectors weakened, and AI applications and cloud computing stocks corrected. The 'shrimp' (OpenClaw) sector fell, with Zhipu AI and Minimax dropping over 6%.

Guodu Securities Subsidiary Announces Capital Reduction and Name Change

Europe's Stoxx 50 index opened down 0.9%, Germany's DAX fell 1%, MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2%, technology sector up 3.2%, Oracle shares surged over 11% pre-market. Meanwhile, the dollar declined for the fourth consecutive day, U.S. Treasury prices rose, 10-year yield edged down one basis point to 4.14%, gold continued its rally near $5,200 per ounce.

Faced with competitive pressure from Gemini, OpenAI plans to integrate its AI video generation tool Sora into ChatGPT, aiming to consolidate resources and achieve the 1 billion weekly active users target; meanwhile, as Sora's standalone app has seen declining popularity, this move is expected to leverage ChatGPT’s vast user base to revitalize the competitiveness of AI video generation.

Just hours before the G7 summit, a major signal was released — energy ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) have expressed general support for drawing down strategic petroleum reserves to counter the impact of the Iran conflict. Oil prices have already experienced two sharp swings this week, with a single-day drop reaching as high as 11%. At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, President Macron will convene a video summit of G7 leaders. If concrete actions are announced afterward, oil prices may see a third major fluctuation this week.