In the Past Six Days, Iran's Oil Exports Have Surpassed Pre-War Levels!

Despite ongoing disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s crude oil exports are rising rather than falling—contrasting sharply with Gulf neighbors forced to reduce supply.

On March 11, according to data from oil tanker tracking firm Kpler, Iran’s average daily crude loading over the past six days has risen to 2.1 million barrels, surpassing the pre-conflict level of 2 million barrels per day recorded in February. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other Gulf oil-producing nations have been compelled to cut supplies due to blocked shipping lanes, urgently seeking alternative routes. The geopolitical rift is rapidly manifesting as a divergence in supply dynamics.

Oil prices have swung violently amid U.S.-Iran tensions. On Monday, market panic pushed Brent crude briefly above $120—a four-year high—before quickly retreating following Trump’s statement suggesting “the war will end soon.”

Concerns about supply disruptions remain unresolved. JPMorgan estimates that if the strait remains closed for two weeks, daily crude supply from the Gulf region would drop by approximately 3.8 million barrels—more than 3% of global production. According to media sources citing officials, the G7 is urgently discussing the largest-ever release of strategic petroleum reserves to counter potential shocks.

Hormuz Looms Large, Yet Iran’s Export Channels Remain Active

According to Kpler data, seven tankers have completed crude loading off Iran’s coast since the conflict began, with at least two recent operations conducted within the Persian Gulf. Despite worsening security conditions at the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s crude export channels continue to operate.

Since the U.S.-Israel air strikes began, Iran has repeatedly threatened attacks on vessels passing through the strait, prompting many commercial ships to reroute or delay passage. International Maritime Organization statistics show that within less than two weeks of the conflict’s outbreak, ten vessels near the strait had been attacked by Iranian forces, resulting in at least seven crew fatalities.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson warned CNBC that tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz “must be extremely careful.” In response, Trump told Fox News that stranded vessels should “show courage” and push through, adding, “There’s nothing to fear—they don’t have a navy, and we’ve already sunk all their ships.”

Iran Explores Alternative Export Routes

According to CNBC, Iran has resumed crude loading operations at the Jask Petroleum and Gas Terminal located south of the Strait of Hormuz along the Oman Sea. This move is seen as a signal from Tehran to bypass the strait and explore alternative export pathways amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

The Jask facility is Iran’s only crude export route that does not require passage through the Strait of Hormuz, providing direct access to the Arabian Sea. However, its operational efficiency lags far behind that of Iran’s primary export hub—the Khark Island terminal near the Strait.

Samir Madani, co-founder of tanker tracking firm TankerTrackers, said that one Iranian vessel is currently loading around 2 million barrels at Jask, marking the fifth such operation at the site in five years. But he noted that loading a single Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) at Jask can take up to 10 days, compared to just one to two days at Khark Island.

Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe believes that the reactivation of Jask indicates Tehran is assessing alternative routes, but whether it can become a sustainable export channel remains uncertain. Madani stated outright that the facility holds “some value for domestic propaganda, but very limited logistical advantages.”

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz shows no signs of easing, and the global energy market continues to face persistent supply risks. Analysts believe the evolution of the geopolitical conflict remains the key determinant of future oil price trends.